The Risks for Capturing and Prosecuting Osama bin Laden

Some people including his sons are now questioning why Obama didn’t capture and prosecute Osama bin Laden instead of having him killed by the US Navy Seals.

Here are some of the risks that some people are not considering when thinking about why not capturing and prosecuting OBL.

If he was captured and be tried in any court of law in any country, then that country would have been possibly subjected to severe and ruthless attacks by Al Qaeda members and OBL supporters. Then more lives would have been lost as a result of them trying to retaliate. And no country would have wanted to host his court hearing.

Also, if he was not burried at sea, then his tomb would have become a symbol of those who want to become like him. It would have become a shrine of hate and extremist fanatics. Yes, OBL used his religion to influence and cause the death of thousands of Christians and Muslims alike around the world; hence he has those who support and sympathize with him and those who detest him including some Muslims.

Therefore, it’s better for one man to die, as he did, than to cause more deaths and instability from violent threats to any country that would have hosted his court hearing.

Financially, he already caused a loss of more than $15 trillion in the global economy since 9/11, and more than $3 billion of that went into trying to find him and protect the US against his attacks. If he was to be tried in the court of law, more billions of dollars would have been spent trying to protect him, for his personal safety and for the country that would have been hosting his court proceeding.

Remember, as his people would have tried to free him out, so as many Americans would have tried to kill him, hence more billions of dollars would have been spent just to keep him safe, and his court proceeding would have gone on for years and years, and each second of every minute, money would have been spent just because of him. But now that money would be spent in rebuilding economic infrastructure and perhaps for international aid and humanitarian programs.

But, is the world safer now than when he was alive? Perhaps just 15% safer. It’s too early to tell. Perhaps about two years from now would be different. Also, for now, Al Qaeda should think twice in appointing a successor, because whoever is appointed to succeed OBL, he would be a target of kill or capture by the US Military Forces, and there is probably no one who would want to be in that hot seat.

Thus, eventually with time, Al Qaeda would be a thing of the past. And we all could be boarding our flights without being subjected to extensive screening and searching, just like we used to be prior to 9/11.

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Was Osama bin Laden Beaten First by the Navy Seals and Why Did He Hate America?

During the Afghani Soviet War, Osama bin Laden was fighting with the US against the Soviet. He was a CIA, well trained operative, fighting as a Mujahideen, fighting against the Soviet Union, to leave Afghanistan. And America was helping the Afghani rebels, Osama bin Laden’s forces, to rid the Soviet in fear of Soviet Union spreading its influence throughout Asia.

However, after the Soviet withdrew from Afghanistan, America didn’t fully withdraw. Instead, America went and set up its military base in the Arabian peninsula. And according to the Muslim customs, no foreigners should setup military base in the Holy land.

Also, America started helping and supporting Israel against Palestine. And that made Osama bin Laden mad, hence he declared jihad against the US in around 1995 but no one was really paying him any attention.

It’s mostly because of America settling in the Arabian region and its support of Israel that overturned Osama bin Laden to hate America.

As a former CIA operative, he was smart in alluding the US and NATO since 9/11; he made the US search for him in the mountains and caves in Southern Pakistan and the Afghani hills, while he was just less than half a mile away from Pakistani Military Academy living good in a $1 million mansion, and not in a cave with snakes and scorpions.

He was probably like, let them hunt “me” in the jungle, while I am here in a wealthy suburb living good with my family and kids.

But the question is; who paid to build that house, who’s the builder, and how long has he been living there? Well, bin Laden was worth more than $500 million prior to 9/11, so might have paid to have the house built just for him.

The house was built in 2005, so that means for more than 6 years, he was living there while the US and NATO were looking for him in the desert? And at what school did his kids go to?

Looking at the computer screen’s photo of him circulating the Web with a shot above his left eye, it seems like he was beaten first with a butt of the gun on the left eye, before he got shot, but not at point-blank.

Now it’s being reported that he was not armed but put up a resistance. So that means, if he tried to physically fight off the US Navy Seals, then they might have first hit him and then shot him. But by shooting an unarmed man is against the US policy.

I am sure there would be Congressional Inquiry on this one, and the House-controlled Republicans would try to pin it and blame Obama.

Mullah Omar and al-Zawahiri are Next by September 2011

The Taliban’s Mullah Mohammed Omar and Al-Qaeda #2 in charge, Ayman Muhammad Rabaie al-Zawahiri, are probably peeing in their pants right now because Osama bin Laden has been killed. So, they need to come out of the holes and surrender themselves to the US so they can be tried in the court of law, or else, they could be next by or before September 2011. Read my previous “near perfect predictive analytical blog post” on the death or capture of Osama bin Laden.

Just as Analytically Predicted, Osama bin Laden is Dead

AGAIN, a near perfect analysis. I’m exactly almost one year late since my analytical predictive article that I wrote and posted in February 2010 stating that Osama bin Laden will be captured or killed by President Obama. Read the article that I posted on my blog on February 15, 2010 for more information.

Adam Gadahn Today, Osama bin Laden Tomorrow

Since I wrote and posted this analytical piece on February 15th, 2010, there has been many successful arrests or kills of senior Al-Qaeda and Taliban Members. And, today, Adam Gadahn, the American-born spokesperson for Al-Qaeda has been arrested by the Pakistani security forces, and that further amplifies my statement that Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar will be both captured or killed by or before June 2010.

By the way, CNN.com was reporting a few days ago that the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence knows the whereabouts or is protecting Osama bin Laden perhaps inside Pakistan, and with the pressure from President Obama, they may eventually cooperate and give him up.

Happy New Year, and Rejoice or Mourn Because Osama bin Laden is Dead, by June 2010!

BREAKING: CNN.com is reporting right now that Taliban’s top military leader, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, has been captured. And, I had just posted a blog on this topic about 4 hours ago, see below, regressing the imminent capture or a kill for Al Qaeda’s Osama bin Laden and Taliban’s Mullah Omar. He should be able to give up lots of intel. Read my previous post below!

My original post: Happy New Year Everyone!

Yes, today is February 15th, 2010, and this is my first post of 2010. And my first analysis is about what’s happening in Afghanistan right now.

I have previously written about what needs to happen in Afghanistan, read it here, but President Obama and his allies didn’t consider to do exactly what I have actually stated in that post. I still concur with his action to boost the US troops in Afghanistan in order to hunt out and thwart off the resistance and all the elements of Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

Looking at all the variables about what’s happening in Afghanistan now, with an ongoing pressure and full force by the US troops and NATO allies, I’ll note here now that Osama bin Laden, his top aides, and Mullah Omar (remember him, the Taliban leader?) will either be captured or killed by the forces of the US troops and NATO by no later than June 2010.

Disagreeing? The US and NATO mighty troops are going from door to door in Afghanistan, driving out all the elements, most of them will eventually throw away and abandon their weapons and ammunitions, and blend in with the local civilians, and those that resist either get killed or driven out into the deeper mountains. As the Forces press on, Al Qaeda and the Taliban will be forced to cross into Pakistan, but since Obama is putting heavy pressure on the Pakistan Government to do more, thus in the end, the Taliban and Al Qaeda will have nowhere to go but either blend in as civilians or get killed.

President Obama has also put great pressure on President Karzai to do more in order to avert and stop the corruption that has ravaged his government. As noted, most of Karzai’s government officials have been working as double agents or involved in some form of corruption to aid the Taliban and Al Qaeda; as well as in the production of the opium that helps finance the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

At least by June 2010, soon or around that time, Osama bin Laden, his top aides, and Mullah Omar will be either captured or killed. And that will tremendously boost Obama’s approval ratings.

But will the capture or killing of Osama bin Laden help stop the threat of Al Qaeda or simply fuel their passion to fight on?

Gorbachev Concurs With My Advice for Obama on Afghanistan?

On October 2, 2009, I wrote and published a blog analysis titled “What is Not Happening Inside the White House’s Situation Room for the War in Afghanistan?” detailing what President Obama should do in order to end the war in Afghanistan.

On October 7, 2009, CBS Evening News followed up with a special report titled; CBS Evening News: Afghanistan, the Road Ahead, which simply and precisely summarized everything I had written in my October 2nd analysis.

Mikhail_Gorbachev

Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev said Sunday that he does not think President Obama should send additional troops to Afghanistan. Photo courtesy of CNN.com Politics Ticker.

Today, November 8, 2009, through his translator, former Soviet Union President, Mikhail Gorbachev, issued a brief statement, giving advice for President Obama on Afghanistan. Mr Gorbachev’s statement basically exemplifies almost everything that I had written in my October 2nd analysis.

Mr. Gorbachev too claims that Obama should not increase the US troops in Afghanistan, but should instead start uniting the Afghanis clans, hereby referring to the Afghani government and members of the Taliban movement. In other words, Mr. Obama should instead work to politicize the Taliban movement into a non-armed political organization.

Here is a short list of excerpts taken from Mr. Gorbachev’s statement:

“I think that what’s needed is not additional forces,” the former Soviet leader said through a translator, “this is something that we discussed, too, years ago but we decided not to do it. And I think our experience deserves attention.”

Instead of more troops, Gorbachev said the Soviets decided to emphasize domestic development in Afghanistan and promoting national reconciliation between the various clans in the country. In deciding how to proceed in Afghanistan, Gorbachev said the Soviet Union also consulted with other countries including the United States, Iran, Pakistan, and India.

Read it more at CNN.com Ticker Politics.

I hope Mr. Obama, as he nears his decision on what to do next in Afghanistan, that he will make the right move, that’s; not to increase the US troops in Afghanistan, but instead, use the current available resources and assets in Afghanistan and the area, and work with all the involved groups; Karzai, the Taliban, EU, India, Russia, China, and Pakistan, to bring these two groups, Karzai and the Taliban, together and talk, and eventually form a unity government in Afghanistan.

That’s the only way that will end the war in Afghanistan, and eventually help flush out Osama bin Laden and his members of Al Qaeda.