Happy New Year, and Rejoice or Mourn Because Osama bin Laden is Dead, by June 2010!

BREAKING: CNN.com is reporting right now that Taliban’s top military leader, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, has been captured. And, I had just posted a blog on this topic about 4 hours ago, see below, regressing the imminent capture or a kill for Al Qaeda’s Osama bin Laden and Taliban’s Mullah Omar. He should be able to give up lots of intel. Read my previous post below!

My original post: Happy New Year Everyone!

Yes, today is February 15th, 2010, and this is my first post of 2010. And my first analysis is about what’s happening in Afghanistan right now.

I have previously written about what needs to happen in Afghanistan, read it here, but President Obama and his allies didn’t consider to do exactly what I have actually stated in that post. I still concur with his action to boost the US troops in Afghanistan in order to hunt out and thwart off the resistance and all the elements of Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

Looking at all the variables about what’s happening in Afghanistan now, with an ongoing pressure and full force by the US troops and NATO allies, I’ll note here now that Osama bin Laden, his top aides, and Mullah Omar (remember him, the Taliban leader?) will either be captured or killed by the forces of the US troops and NATO by no later than June 2010.

Disagreeing? The US and NATO mighty troops are going from door to door in Afghanistan, driving out all the elements, most of them will eventually throw away and abandon their weapons and ammunitions, and blend in with the local civilians, and those that resist either get killed or driven out into the deeper mountains. As the Forces press on, Al Qaeda and the Taliban will be forced to cross into Pakistan, but since Obama is putting heavy pressure on the Pakistan Government to do more, thus in the end, the Taliban and Al Qaeda will have nowhere to go but either blend in as civilians or get killed.

President Obama has also put great pressure on President Karzai to do more in order to avert and stop the corruption that has ravaged his government. As noted, most of Karzai’s government officials have been working as double agents or involved in some form of corruption to aid the Taliban and Al Qaeda; as well as in the production of the opium that helps finance the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

At least by June 2010, soon or around that time, Osama bin Laden, his top aides, and Mullah Omar will be either captured or killed. And that will tremendously boost Obama’s approval ratings.

But will the capture or killing of Osama bin Laden help stop the threat of Al Qaeda or simply fuel their passion to fight on?

Advertisements

Gorbachev Concurs With My Advice for Obama on Afghanistan?

On October 2, 2009, I wrote and published a blog analysis titled “What is Not Happening Inside the White House’s Situation Room for the War in Afghanistan?” detailing what President Obama should do in order to end the war in Afghanistan.

On October 7, 2009, CBS Evening News followed up with a special report titled; CBS Evening News: Afghanistan, the Road Ahead, which simply and precisely summarized everything I had written in my October 2nd analysis.

Mikhail_Gorbachev

Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev said Sunday that he does not think President Obama should send additional troops to Afghanistan. Photo courtesy of CNN.com Politics Ticker.

Today, November 8, 2009, through his translator, former Soviet Union President, Mikhail Gorbachev, issued a brief statement, giving advice for President Obama on Afghanistan. Mr Gorbachev’s statement basically exemplifies almost everything that I had written in my October 2nd analysis.

Mr. Gorbachev too claims that Obama should not increase the US troops in Afghanistan, but should instead start uniting the Afghanis clans, hereby referring to the Afghani government and members of the Taliban movement. In other words, Mr. Obama should instead work to politicize the Taliban movement into a non-armed political organization.

Here is a short list of excerpts taken from Mr. Gorbachev’s statement:

“I think that what’s needed is not additional forces,” the former Soviet leader said through a translator, “this is something that we discussed, too, years ago but we decided not to do it. And I think our experience deserves attention.”

Instead of more troops, Gorbachev said the Soviets decided to emphasize domestic development in Afghanistan and promoting national reconciliation between the various clans in the country. In deciding how to proceed in Afghanistan, Gorbachev said the Soviet Union also consulted with other countries including the United States, Iran, Pakistan, and India.

Read it more at CNN.com Ticker Politics.

I hope Mr. Obama, as he nears his decision on what to do next in Afghanistan, that he will make the right move, that’s; not to increase the US troops in Afghanistan, but instead, use the current available resources and assets in Afghanistan and the area, and work with all the involved groups; Karzai, the Taliban, EU, India, Russia, China, and Pakistan, to bring these two groups, Karzai and the Taliban, together and talk, and eventually form a unity government in Afghanistan.

That’s the only way that will end the war in Afghanistan, and eventually help flush out Osama bin Laden and his members of Al Qaeda.

What is Not Happening Inside the White House’s Situation Room for the War in Afghanistan?

On September 11, 2007, I wrote and published a blog article titled, “Bush to Kick Gen. Pervez Musharraf Out?“, and less than a year later, Musharraf was out of Pakistan as its President.

And I am now going to write about what’s been happening in Afghanistan for the past 8 years, which most of you may not agree with this analysis, but one must look at both sides to completely understand what might need to happen in order to end the current war in Afghanistan, because it’s not through the barrel of the gun that the war in Afghanistan will come to an end and finally bring the US troops in Afghanistan back home, to their families and friends.

Yesterday, September 30, 2009, President Obama met with 8 of his top cabinets, military generals and advisers, inside the White House’s Situation Room to discuss a new strategy and direction for the war in Afghanistan. And today, it’s being reported that Mr. Obama will take a few weeks to decide what new direction he will undertake for the U.S. involvement in Afghanistan. Some of the Top US generals in Afghanistan including McChrystal have asked President Obama for an additional 5,000+ troops to help curb the current escalation of violence and incidents caused by the ruthless and cunning Taliban fighters.

History tells us that, according to Stephen Tanner’s “Afghanistan: A Military History”, dating back to the 3rd century BCE, ranging from the occupations of Afghanistan by Cyrus, Alexander the Great, Genghis Khan, Tamerlane, the British, the Soviet Union, and the recent rise, and fall, of the Taliban, no one, none of the above stated, dating back to about 2,500 years ago, has won the war against the Afghanis.

John RamboIn the movie, Rambo III, as played by Sylvester Stallone, depicting his mission to supply weapons to the Afghan rebels, the Mujahedeen, who were fighting against the Soviet during the Afghan Soviet War. By paraphrasing, his co-star is heard telling Rambo how the Afghanis have always resisted and refused to be conquered by anyone, and that they never give up their land to anyone, no matter what the cost, they are willing to die for their land.

Following the heinous act of terrorism attack of September 11, 2001 on US soil, the U.S. and its coalition forces, NATO, raged Operation Enduring Freedom and toppled the unofficial Taliban government in Afghanistan which then housed Osama bin Laden and his terrorist organization, Al-Qaeda. And the US and NATO were instantly successful in toppling them, but have yet to capture or kill Osama bin Laden and most of the Taliban leaders, such as Mullah Mohammed Omar.

And for the past 8 years, the US and NATO have been on the defense, without much success in getting rid of and defeating the Taliban and Al-Qaeda members who have since fled and may be hiding in the deep and rugged mountains of Afghanistan or inside the Southern lawless of Pakistan.

What’s really the case with Afghanistan? Why can’t the US and NATO defeat the Taliban? What’s Obama going to do from here to defeat the Taliban? Will the increase of US troops in Afghanistan help make a difference in defeating the Taliban and bring peace and stability to the much devastated people of Afghanistan? Will Osama bin Laden finally be captured or killed once the Taliban have been defeated?

These are some of the many questions that most people around the world are asking themselves. But no one seems to have an actual solution of what to do, even the US top generals in Afghanistan are simply playing the chicken game of what to do next.

During the 2008 presidential election campaign, the then presidential candidate, Obama, promised that if elected, he will finally bring an end to the war in Iraq, and then moves the US troops from Iraq to Afghanistan in order to finally, once and for all, defeat the Taliban, capture or kill Osama bin Laden, and bring peace and stability to the people of Afghanistan.

But, let’s step out of the box for a minute and think about what the people of Afghanistan really want. Like most Iraqis, no matter who’s trying to help free them from the shackles of such as the Taliban, the Afghanis may regard you as an occupier of their beloved land, and thus they will always resist you. They will not honestly work with you, they will not listen to you, they will not honor their promise to work with you, and they simply look at you as an evil occupier, who doesn’t belong in their land. All they want is for you to leave and get off of their land.

The main problem right now that is currently treachery hindering the US and NATO, is that they just cannot find an easy way to defeat the Taliban. Simply because the Taliban fighters have perished their military uniforms and integrated themselves within and among the Afghani people. And that’s why the US and NATO forces have never been able to know whom they are fighting against.

And the Afghani people just never fully cooperate with the US and NATO forces to point out the Taliban fighters who are among them. It has gotten to the point that, anyone could be a Taliban fighter, who’s out to harm or kill the US and NATO forces with their improvised weapons. Thus no weapons of any kind will ever help bring peace and stability to Afghanistan.

Jonas SavimbiIn Angola, we have witnessed how civil war has ravaged the Angolan country for over 27 years as UNITA rebels, an anti-Communist rebel group, waged civil war against the MPLA, Angolan government forces. Not until 2002, when UNITA’s leader, Jonas Savimbi was finally killed by the MPLA, that Angola started to smell a sense of peace and stability, but only after UNITA disintegrated itself from an armed rebel group to an unarmed political organization and went to the poll, a general multi-party election, as an opposition party and is now a part of a democratic Angolan parliamentarian politics.

And, as President Obama currently reminisces on what strategy and direction to take in Afghanistan, increasing the US troops or NATO forces in Afghanistan will not make a difference. What Obama and his NATO allies must do is to craft a new strategy, to democratically politicize the war in Afghanistan, with the people of Afghanistan, to try to educate and explain to them about their new strategy, of not fighting arm to arm with the Taliban fighters but to bring them together with the Afghani government as a political party. To work with the government of Pakistan, and bring Mullah Omar and his Taliban group to a negotiating table with the government of Karzai, so that the Taliban can become an unarmed political organization, and join the government of Karzai to hold a democratic multi-party general election.

Hamid KarzaiA better way to start out with this is possibly for Mr. Obama to allocate a certain amount of money as a grant to Afghanistan, unlike what Bush has done in the past, and allocate this money to the rebuilding of the Afghanistan institutions and marketplace for the general consumers.

Of course this process will take time, but Obama can work on it for the next few years towards this new strategy and resolution, to negotiate an integration of the Taliban group as an opposition, unarmed political organization within the Afghanistan government. And if that happens, then that will make Osama bin Laden come out of the hole where he’s been hiding for all these years.

Because wherever Mullah Omar is currently hiding, that’s the same place bin Laden is likely hiding, and if Mullah Omar peacefully joins a democratically elected multi-party Afghani government as an opposition party leader, unlike the recent election, then peace and stability may come to the people of Afghanistan and the US and NATO may then be able to capture or kill Osama bin Laden.

This is the only solution that can help end the war in Afghanistan, which may finally lead to the demise of Osama bin Laden. However, if Obama decides to tackle the Taliban with armed forces, then that will simply yield in the same way as the war in Afghanistan by Cyrus, Alexander the Great, Genghis Khan, Tamerlane, the British, and the Soviet Union, which resulted in a simple withdraw of their troops without ever achieving their objectives.